If you’ve ever worked with a charity, community project, or social programme, you might have heard someone say: “We need a theory of change!”
Sometimes that sentence is said with the energy of a fire drill.
Sometimes it’s said like a magic spell.
The idea in one sentence
A theory of change is a clear explanation of how you believe change happens, and how your work fits into that story.
So what is it, really?
Think of a theory of change as a roadmap. It helps a group or organisation lay out how they believe their work will make a difference. It’s about asking: If we do these activities, how do we expect things to improve for the people or problems we care about? In practice, it’s one of the most useful things a team can write down because it forces you to show the steps between effort and impact, including the assumptions holding those steps together.
“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed, citizens can change the world.
ndeed, it is the only thing that ever has.”
Margaret Mead
A theory of change maps the route between effort and impact
Most organisations can describe what they do. The harder part is describing how those actions plausibly connect to the outcomes they care about. A theory of change is where you draw that route in plain language.
Read it left to right. If the links feel obvious, write them down anyway. If the links feel shaky, that’s the point: you’ve found where learning or adaptation is needed.
A theory of change prevents “activity” being mistaken for progress
Teams often measure what sits closest to activity because those numbers are easiest to collect. A theory of change helps you keep outputs in view, while staying honest about what they can and cannot prove.
Closest to activity:
What we did
Harder to evidence:
What changed
What matters most: What improved
This is not an argument against tracking outputs. It’s a reminder to treat outputs as signals, not proof of impact.
What a Theory of Change is Not
A theory of change isn’t just a wish list or a set of good intentions. It’s not a bunch of buzzwords or a complicated chart that only experts can understand. And it’s definitely not a guarantee that everything will work out exactly as planned. Instead, it’s a living guide that helps organisations think carefully about their actions, make better decisions, and measure progress along the way.
Why does it Matter?
Having a clear theory of change means everyone involved, from staff to supporters, knows what success looks like and how to get there. It encourages honest conversations about what’s working, what’s not, and what needs to change. When used well, it helps organisations stay focused, be more effective, and make a real impact.
in summary…
A theory of change is a simple but powerful way to connect the dots between what you do and the difference you hope to make. It’s there to guide, not to complicate. By keeping the process straightforward and open to everyone, organizations can make sure their good ideas turn into real, positive change.
